Executive Summary: The potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in an ongoing conflict has increased as Russia's military momentum declines. This has been met with rejection from the United States, but the response from other European countries is uncertain. The use of these weapons carries significant risks and potential consequences, including the possibility of a full-scale nuclear exchange with catastrophic loss of life and destruction. In order to prevent this, it is essential for all parties involved in the conflict to avoid steps that could increase the likelihood of their use, and to work towards de-escalation and dialogue.
As Russia's military momentum in the ongoing conflict continues to decline, the potential for the use of tactical nuclear weapons has risen. This development has been met with rejection from the United States, but the response from other European countries remains uncertain. While France and Germany may choose to exercise restraint, it is not clear how the Visegrád nations will respond. In a recent statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned revising Russia's nuclear weapon doctrine from a policy of no first use to one of flexible response, further escalating the potential for nuclear conflict. The use of tactical nuclear weapons carries significant risks and potential consequences. In a conflict scenario, their employment could escalate quickly and lead to a full-scale nuclear exchange, resulting in catastrophic loss of life and destruction. Even a limited use of these weapons would have devastating effects on the affected region and could potentially trigger a wider conflict. The United States faces a strategic dilemma in this situation, balancing its focus on the growing threat from China and the need to preserve the global liberal order. It is likely that France and Germany will not engage in the conflict with Russia in the war with Ukraine because of their tendency to "buck-pass" and leave other countries to deal with their own problems. They may believe that allowing Ukraine to weaken Russia in the war will come at too high a cost, and will instead choose to remain neutral. On the other hand, the United States, which has an obligation to preserve the global liberal order, may choose to engage in the conflict, albeit with limited warfare. This can be seen from the steady supply of weapons and financial support to Ukraine during the war since February of this year. The US may believe that it is necessary to intervene in order to prevent Russia from gaining too much power and destabilizing the region. Finland's prime minister has stated that the EU is weak, and that European countries need to rely on NATO and the United States for defense. This sentiment is likely shared by the Eastern European nations, who are likely to have more fear of Russian tactical nuclear weapons than their Western European counterparts. These countries may believe that NATO and the US are the only effective means of defense against the potential use of such weapons by Russia.
It is therefore essential for all parties involved in the conflict to carefully consider the potential consequences of their actions and to avoid any steps that could increase the likelihood of the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This includes not only the major powers, but also regional actors such as the Visegrád nations. In order to prevent the potentially disastrous consequences of the use of tactical nuclear weapons, it is crucial for all parties to work towards de-escalation and dialogue. This may require difficult compromises and concessions, but the potential cost of inaction is far greater.
Additionally, it is important for the international community to support efforts towards peaceful resolution of the conflict and to hold those who violate international norms accountable for their actions. This can include diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, and other measures designed to incentivize peaceful behavior and discourage the use of nuclear weapons. It is also critical for the international community to provide support and assistance to the affected region in the event of a nuclear conflict, in order to mitigate the humanitarian and environmental impacts of such a disaster.