Interview | Steven Olson: Early Signs of Strain in “America First”

Tokyo, March 18 — Speaking at the New Otani Hotel in Tokyo on Wednesday, Steven Olson, a former U.S. trade negotiator and visiting fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, outlined growing tensions within Washington’s Iran policy—warning that recent developments may signal deeper structural strain within the Trump camp.

Olson pointed to the resignation of a senior figure reportedly linked to disagreements over the Iran war as a potential early indicator of internal friction. The official, known for skepticism toward Israeli influence on U.S. foreign policy, had become increasingly out of step with the administration’s direction.

More broadly, the episode raises questions about the coherence of the “America First” doctrine. Long defined by its resistance to foreign entanglements, the movement now finds itself aligned with a conflict that challenges that premise. Whether this remains an isolated rupture or develops into wider divisions remains uncertain.

Olson also cautioned that the administration may be underestimating the complexity of the Iran theatre. Comparisons to previous rapid operations risk obscuring structural differences, with Iran presenting a far more entrenched and multidimensional challenge. Any resolution, he noted, would depend not on unilateral declaration but on alignment among multiple actors, including Israel and Iran.

Meanwhile, the reported mining of the Strait of Hormuz introduces an immediate economic dimension. Even in the event of a ceasefire, restoring normal maritime traffic could take months, placing sustained pressure on global energy markets. For the United States, this carries domestic political implications as inflation remains a central concern ahead of the midterm elections.

For now, the situation remains contained. But as Olson suggested, the more critical question is not present stability, but whether underlying geopolitical and domestic tensions begin to widen in the months ahead.

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Interview | Steven Olson (Full Transcript)

New Otani Hotel, Tokyo — March 18, 2026

Interviewer: Could you please introduce yourself and explain why you are currently in Tokyo, Japan?

Steven Olson: Sure. My name is Steven Olson. I am a visiting fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

I started my career a long time ago in Washington, D.C., as a U.S. trade negotiator. For the past 25 to 27 years, I have been working across Asia and the Middle East.

I am here in Tokyo now to participate in a conference focused on online security, online fraud, and scam centers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOrBIY-zSYc

Interviewer: Thank you very much. Now, regarding the recent developments, particularly the internal situation in the United States. Could you explain the significance of this event?

Steven Olson: An important national security advisor within the Trump administration has resigned over the war with Iran. He has a long history of being very skeptical of Israeli influence on U.S. politics and foreign policy.

It was ultimately concluded that he could not remain in the administration given the direction of the war.

The key issue to watch is whether this represents the first crack in what could become wider divisions within the MAGA movement over the Iran war. As you know, one of the foundational principles of that movement has been “America First” and avoiding foreign wars.

A war with Iran clearly runs against that principle. So we will have to see whether President Trump can maintain his control over his base, or whether we begin to see more defections going forward.

Interviewer: In your opinion, what kind of foreign policy approach should the United States take toward Iran, especially considering Iran’s own internal issues, including the nuclear question?

Steven Olson: If you are asking for my personal perspective, I think President Trump may have become somewhat unrealistic and overconfident, particularly given how successful, quick, and comparatively easy the operation in Venezuela appeared to be.

It could turn out to be a significant strategic mistake to engage in Iran, because we are already seeing that this situation is not going to be as quick or as easy as the Venezuela operation.

I think Trump’s personal preference would be to bring this to a close as quickly as possible, to declare victory and move on. But we have to keep in mind that there are three parties involved: the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The war does not end simply because Trump declares that it is over. The war ends when all three parties agree that it is over.

The other issue we are facing is that the Strait of Hormuz has now been mined. Even if, by some miracle, hostilities were to cease tomorrow, normal traffic through the strait could not resume immediately. It would likely take anywhere from three to six months to fully clear the mines.

As a result, we are going to see inflationary pressures around the world, particularly in the United States. This could become a serious problem for President Trump as he approaches the midterm elections, because the most important issue for American voters is affordability.

So it could turn out that Trump has, in effect, shot himself in the foot but it remains to be seen.

Interviewer: Thank you very much. I think this concludes this session. I hope we can have more of your insights in the future.

Steven Olson:

My pleasure—anytime.