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  • Writer's pictureGeopolitics.Λsia


Updated: Jan 18

Europe's 20th-century history is marked by wars, upheavals, and genocides, notably the Holocaust. The Schindler's List, although a cinematic representation, unveils the horrors and personal tragedies faced by Jews, including many from Poland. This history isn't just a European scar; its reverberations shaped the creation and geopolitics of Israel, a nation conceived as a sanctuary for Jews after the Holocaust.

Once persecuted, many Jews sought refuge across the world, with some lobbying leaders like the U.S. president about the ongoing atrocities. Their pleas often fell on deaf ears due to geopolitical considerations, a cold calculation of interests over humanitarian concerns. Today, Israel stands as a regional power, and the roles seem reversed with Palestinians as the suppressed. The narrative of the oppressed becoming the oppressor is a contentious one, yet it's essential to distinguish between state actions and civilian experiences.

Israel's tumultuous history has led to a focus on security, leading to operations that many see as heavy-handed. While empathizing with the Palestinian plight, it's crucial to differentiate between their genuine grievances and extremist factions promoting violence.

The potential clearance of Gaza, as posited by some, leading to nearly 2 million refugees, is a powder keg. History has shown that displaced populations without a pathway to return or resettlement can be the bedrock for future conflicts. Moreover, where would these refugees go, and who would shoulder this responsibility? Regardless of the leaders's stances, the core issue remains: How does one resolve a deeply historical, religious, and territorial conflict without igniting more fires? It's a delicate tightrope walk, balancing Israel's legitimate security concerns with the Palestinians' rights.


The Paradox of Katechon: A Dramatic Lens on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

καὶ νῦν τὸ κατέχον οἴδατε εἰς τὸ ἀποκαλυφθῆναι αὐτὸν ἐν τῷ ἑαυτοῦ καιρῷ. τὸ γὰρ μυστήριον ἤδη ἐνεργεῖται τῆς ἀνομίας μόνον ὁ κατέχων ἄρτι ἕως ἐκ μέσου γένηται

“And you know what is now restraining (το' κατέχον) him, so that he may be revealed when his time comes. For the mystery of lawlessness is already at work, but only until the one who now restrains (ο' κατέχων) it is removed.” - Thessalonians 2-2

In the labyrinth of international politics, few conflicts provoke as much global consternation as the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. Yet, the web of complexity becomes even more entangled when viewed through the prism of Carl Schmitt's paradoxical concept of "katechon"—a term initially rooted in theology but reframed by Schmitt as a political theory.

The Egyptian term "Shasu of Yhw" (𓇾𓆷𓇓𓅱𓇌𓉔 𓍯𓅱) hints at a possible early connection to the Hebrew God, YHWH.

According to Schmitt, katechon acts as a restraining force—a power that withholds, containing both malevolent and benevolent aspects. It could hold back the Antichrist, yet also restrain the genuine end time and the final judgment. The katechon isn't just a relic of historical philosophy; it is eerily relevant today.

Imagine Israel's fervent aspiration for the Third Temple in Jerusalem as a modern-day katechon. With biblical prophecies of the end times and the arrival of God seemingly at their fingertips, Israel believes its actions hold back chaos, preserving a form of divine order. On the flip side, for Palestinians, the very notion of a Third Temple materializing on contested grounds represents not a sacred act, but a sacrilege—an encroachment upon their ancestral lands and religious sites.

Both Israelis and Palestinians see themselves as katechons—each side holding back what they perceive as the other's malevolence. Israel sees its endeavors as restraining terrorism and violence, while Palestinians see their resistance as holding back occupation and disenfranchisement. They are dual katechons in a world that can barely sustain one. The real dilemma emerges when the restraining force itself becomes a source of strife, throwing into question the very essence of what it seeks to withhold.

Here lies the ultimate irony: Israel's deep-seated drive for the Third Temple—an aspiration they see as a katechon that would bring divine justice and order—is itself a restraining force against the arrival of a peaceful resolution and coexistence. By the same token, Palestinians' struggle for sovereignty, which they see as a form of katechon against oppression, is also viewed as a barrier to Israel's theological and existential goals.

So how does one reconcile these opposing forces? International diplomatic efforts, regional peace initiatives, or even grassroots movements for coexistence may offer a path. Yet, a true reconciliation must aim to be a balanced katechon, restraining destructive tendencies on both sides without negating their essential identities or aspirations.

In a landscape as volatile as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the quest for a balanced katechon seems almost Sisyphean. However, the Schmittian notion reminds us of the dual nature of all restraining forces: they both enable and restrict. For any attempt at peace to succeed, it must navigate this intricate paradox. Only then can we begin to unfurl the tangled web of a conflict that has ensnared generations.


Global Monitoring Section

As we navigate the labyrinth of complexities that define our global environment, it is paramount that we remain attuned to the current and emerging trends shaping the geopolitical and economic landscapes. This week presents a confluence of significant issues, warranting immediate attention and strategic foresight. Allow me to elucidate on two major driving forces and the resultant implications for our organization.

Image [source]

Major Driving Force for This Week: Gaza Crisis

The situation in Gaza has reached an alarming threshold of severity, commanding headlines across major media outlets. The New York Times highlights a Hamas attack that has compromised Israeli military secrets, while simultaneously reporting Israel's preparations for an invasion of Gaza City. On a parallel note, The Wall Street Journal focuses on the deteriorating living conditions for Gazans as the prospect of ground conflict approaches, also alluding to a global diplomatic labyrinth entangled in a hostage crisis.

Further corroborating these findings, The Washington Post emphasizes the proactive role U.S. officials are taking to push Israel towards resolving the crisis. While the Israeli-Gaza conflict itself is not a new phenomenon, the escalating tensions and increasing complexities present a fertile ground for broader geopolitical disruption. The United States' diplomatic efforts underscore the critical nature of the situation, signaling a direct interest and potential influence in Middle East relations.


The escalation in Gaza has the potential to reach a tipping point that could disrupt regional stability and affect U.S.-Middle East relations. This warrants monitoring, not only because of the potential for expanded conflict but also because it may elicit reactions from other global players, reshaping international alliances and conflicts.

Long-term Driving Force: Economic Shifts and Market Dynamics

Concurrent with geopolitical tension, there are notable shifts in the economic realm. Wall Street Journal reports on Carl Icahn's 'Big Short 2.0', potentially signaling an impending downturn. Additionally, the journal identifies resistance to the sales push for Electric Vehicles (EV), indicating market saturation or underlying deterrents to widespread adoption. Washington Post adds to this by spotlighting the prospective decline in Austin’s booming office space market, pointing towards larger trends affecting real estate and remote work.


These economic signs could be the harbingers of broader changes in the U.S., with implications for global supply chains, investment strategies, and consumer behavior. The complex interplay between these economic dynamics could provide clues to the future of industries, challenging our assumptions about post-pandemic recovery.


Immediate Action: Given the imminent nature of the Gaza crisis, we recommend convening an emergency meeting to focus on this situation. The involvement of experts on the Middle East is advised for an in-depth understanding and to prepare for potential diplomatic consultations.

Strategic Planning: An economic forecasting team should be organized to dig deeper into the economic shifts indicated by the recent news. Such an endeavor should look to identify risks and opportunities for our investment portfolio and perhaps instigate a reconsideration of our strategies in sectors like the auto industry and real estate.

Additional Insights

Besides these major forces, it’s worth noting the growing global challenge of online deceit and information warfare, an air travel crisis that might have far-reaching economic repercussions, and the clandestine activities of foreign espionage on American soil. While these issues may not require immediate intervention, they should be part of our long-term strategic considerations.


In this vortex of uncertainty, it's crucial that we not only react to immediate challenges but also position ourselves advantageously for long-term shifts. By staying attuned to these key geopolitical and economic indicators, we can make informed decisions that safeguard our interests and seize opportunities as they arise.


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