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  • Writer's pictureGeopolitics.Λsia

Key Trend in Generative AI 2024

Updated: Jan 18

As Q3 financial results roll in, tech behemoths Microsoft and Alphabet make their mark. Alphabet, Google's parent, unveiled sales of $76.69 billion, marking an 11% hike from the previous year's comparable period. It also reported quarterly profits of $19.69 billion. Not to be outdone, Microsoft showcased a 13% YoY sales surge to $56.5 billion, exceeding forecasts. Its quarterly profits rose by 27% from last year, reaching $22.3 billion.

A closer examination reveals Microsoft reaping significant dividends from generative AI, a stark contrast to Google's tepid growth in a crucial business segment, as it channels resources into this nascent technology. This disparity underscores Microsoft's nascent dominance in the AI arena since ChatGPT's debut. Microsoft's shares jumped by 4%, adding a whopping $100 billion to its market cap. Conversely, Alphabet's market value shrank by the same amount, its shares tumbling over 6% post-trading.

Generative AI has evidently been a pivotal force throughout the year. As 2024 beckons, anticipate an escalation in the intensity, with ten salient trends in Generative AI emerging.

YouTube Shorts, Alphabet's answer to TikTok, clocked a commendable 70 billion daily views in the recent quarter, marking a high note for the company. However, Google's cloud services painted a less rosy picture, registering $8.41 billion in revenue, which failed to meet market projections. Jesse Cohen of links Alphabet's stock dip to the cloud sector's lukewarm performance, highlighting the looming shadows of rivals like Azure and AWS.

Meanwhile, Google is navigating turbulent legal waters, facing a major antitrust trial in the US over allegations of monopolistic practices in search. Despite such challenges, and amidst job cuts early this year, the tech behemoth signals an unwavering commitment to generative AI, evident in the recent expansion of its Bard AI chatbot. CEO Sundar Pichai underscores the tech titan's strategic vision: keen cost optimization to funnel more into AI innovations for long-term financial resilience.

However, our analysis suggests a different narrative. When juxtaposing Microsoft and Alphabet since the year's onset, Alphabet holds an edge. This suggests the market's broader, long-term confidence in Alphabet's strategic moves and potential growth trajectory. While quarterly fluctuations capture immediate reactions, it's the longer lens that often reveals the more insightful story.

2024 Key Trends

Navigating further into the future of Generative AI in 2024, a plethora of evolving paradigms emerge, deeply rooted in technology's promise and ethical imperatives:

In the AI landscape of 2024, the rise of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) stands out as a noteworthy pivot. RAG represents a sophisticated confluence of retrieval-based and generative mechanisms, promising models that are not only responsive but also inventive. By harnessing external knowledge databases during the generation process, RAG models are anticipated to enhance the depth, precision, and relevance of AI outputs. This transformative approach positions RAG as a pivotal player in AI's future, streamlining complex tasks from intricate question-answering to dynamic content creation. As industries seek AI tools that can interact and adapt more fluidly, RAG's potential to bridge gaps between static information and dynamic generation might just be the game-changer we've been waiting for.

Parallelly, we witness the ascent of Autonomous Agents. These self-governed AI entities, capable of decision-making without human intervention, are set to revolutionize industries, from transportation to manufacturing.

The age of generic AI gives way to Fine-Tuning & Specialized AI. One particularly profound impact will be in sectors like healthcare, where specialized AI tools, akin to a Medical Expert, will drive diagnoses, prognosis, and treatment strategies. The democratization of AI beckons with a growing trend toward Open Sourcing AI, making cutting-edge AI tools and research accessible to a broader audience, fostering innovation.

A critical turn in the AI trajectory will be the establishment of a Global AI Regulatory Framework. As AI permeates every facet of society, standardized regulations will be pivotal in ensuring ethical and safe AI applications. This global perspective is enhanced by the accelerating AI Superpower Race, predominantly between the US and China, with both nations vying for technological dominance.

Source: HAI AI Index Report 2023, released April 3, 2023.

Advancements in Better Semantic Multimodal AI suggest models proficient in understanding and generating content across varied modalities – be it text, image, or sound. Simultaneously, Longer Memory AI ensures enhanced data retention capabilities, enabling models to make more informed, context-aware decisions.

The AI community's commitment to transparency is evident with a heightened focus on Causality and eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). As AI systems become intricate, the necessity for clear, interpretable decision-making processes grows exponentially. Personalized AI also emerges as a game-changer, tailoring experiences based on individual preferences, from content recommendations to learning modules.

These multifaceted trends, in synergy, are set to sculpt an AI-driven future in 2024, marked by innovation, ethical considerations, and global collaborations.

US vs China Competition in AI Landscape

In examining the tides of Generative AI for 2024, there are clear trends influenced by the global powers, particularly the US and China, as we see more and more strong AI papers from China. Here's an analysis of the pivotal developments:

Firstly, the race for technological leadership in AI has intensified. Historically, the US has held the baton, particularly within academia and the private sectors. However, China, with its strategic investments and policies, has rapidly bridged this gap. Both nations, with their distinctive national strategies, harbor ambitions to dictate the future course of AI. The US leans heavily on research, fostering innovation through the private sector, while China, with its top-down approach, aims for AI supremacy by 2030.

Source: 2023, released October 12, 2023.

China's vast population provides it with an unparalleled advantage concerning data, a treasure trove for honing AI models. Coupled with fewer initial data collection restrictions, China has a distinct edge. Furthermore, China’s agility in weaving AI into societal fabric—be it through surveillance, fintech, or smart cities—underscores its drive to understand the tangible impacts of AI on society and economy. The educational frameworks of both nations contribute significantly to their AI landscapes. The US, with its premier institutions, has been the epicenter of AI academic excellence. In contrast, China, recognizing the imperative of AI expertise, has revamped its educational systems to nurture an increasing cadre of AI aficionados.

Yet, the realm of ethics and governance presents contrasts. Notable differences emerge in their stances on surveillance and privacy, potentially ushering in varied AI applications between the two. Trade tensions and concerns over intellectual property further add layers of complexity, hinting at potential divergences in AI standards and tech frameworks.

Lastly, while the undercurrents of competition are palpable, voices advocating for collaboration, especially in addressing global challenges like pandemics and climate change, are growing louder. Both nations, in their bid to extend their AI clout globally, utilize distinctive avenues—China's Belt and Road Initiative and the US's tech behemoths. The unfolding dynamics between these two titans will undoubtedly shape the contours of AI's future.


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