The article explores the complex and evolving landscape of Thai politics, focusing on the power struggles and strategic maneuvering within the conservative establishment, particularly between Prayut Chan-o-Cha, Prawit Wongsuwan, and Thaksin Shinawatra. As Prayut’s popularity declines due to internal rivalries and external crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, Prawit leverages his influence over the Senate and judiciary to challenge Thaksin’s allies, such as Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. In response, Thaksin faces a difficult decision regarding his political legacy, ultimately considering his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as a new leader to rejuvenate the Pheu Thai Party and counter the rising threat from the Future Forward Party / Move Forward Party (now the People's Party).
The new Thai PM, Paethongtarn Shinawatra, image source [PTP's X]
The Complex Terrain of Thai Politics
Thai politics is a landscape marked by intricate power dynamics, where multiple centers of influence intersect, often leading to volatile and unpredictable outcomes. Since the 1932 transition from absolute to constitutional monarchy, the military, the establishment, and elected civilian politicians have jockeyed for control over the country’s direction. However, power in Thailand is not just about holding office; it involves navigating a web of relationships, alliances, and historical legacies that extend beyond the formal structures of government.
At the heart of this complex terrain is the military, which has historically positioned itself as the guardian of national stability. With numerous coups d'état in its history, the Thai military has repeatedly intervened in politics, often justifying its actions as necessary to protect the monarchy and the nation from political chaos. This has led to a political culture where the military’s role is seen as essential, even if it operates behind the scenes.
Civilian politicians, on the other hand, must navigate this landscape carefully. Figures like Thaksin Shinawatra, who emerged from the business world to become a populist leader, have found themselves in conflict with the military and the establishment, leading to coups and legal challenges. Thaksin’s legacy continues to shape Thai politics, with his influence extending through his party, Pheu Thai, and through aligned leaders he has positioned over the years.
The Changing Landscape: The Decline of Prayut Chan-o-Cha
Prayut Chan-o-Cha, who ascended to power following the 2014 military coup, initially commanded significant support, particularly from conservative elements within Thai society who viewed the military as a stabilizing force amidst political turmoil. As Prime Minister, Prayut’s government was seen as a continuation of the military’s control, with a focus on maintaining order and suppressing dissent. However, over time, Prayut’s popularity began to wane, driven by several key factors.
Firstly, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the weaknesses of Prayut’s administration. His government was criticized for its slow and inadequate response to the crisis, particularly in the procurement and distribution of vaccines. The public health crisis exacerbated economic difficulties, with many Thais facing unemployment, reduced income, and business closures. The perceived mismanagement of the pandemic led to widespread dissatisfaction, particularly among urban voters and younger demographics, who had already been critical of Prayut’s authoritarian tendencies.
Secondly, Prayut’s prolonged rule and increasingly autocratic style further alienated segments of the population. His government’s crackdowns on protests, particularly those led by students and young activists calling for democratic reforms, highlighted the growing disconnect between the government and the people. The use of force against peaceful demonstrators, the imposition of strict censorship, and the continued use of legal mechanisms to stifle opposition created an atmosphere of repression that fueled discontent.
Finally, internal divisions within Prayut’s own camp contributed to the erosion of his support. The military faction that had brought him to power began to show signs of strain, particularly as Prayut sought to consolidate his authority by sending some aligned leaders in his affiliated political party, the Palang Pracharat Party (PPP). This move was perceived by some of his former allies, particularly Prawit Wongsuwan, as an attempt to sideline them and centralize power around himself. The growing rivalry between Prayut and Prawit, along with the latter’s continued influence within the military and Senate, further complicated Prayut’s ability to govern effectively.
The Role of Prayut, Prawit, and Anupong: Growing Rivalries
In the years following the 2014 coup, Prayut, Prawit, and Anupong Paochinda emerged as the key figures who dominated Thai politics. These three generals, who were part of the different military cohort, initially worked together seamlessly, with Prayut serving as Prime Minister, Prawit taking charge of the Defense Ministry, and Anupong overseeing the Interior Ministry. Together, they formed a powerful triumvirate that maintained a tight grip on the country’s political and security apparatus.
However, as Prayut’s tenure extended, cracks began to appear in this alliance. The source of these tensions lay primarily in the growing ambitions of each leader, particularly Prayut, who sought to solidify his control over the government. His decision to take over the Defense Ministry—a position previously held by Prawit—marked a significant power shift. By assuming control of the defense portfolio, Prayut effectively reduced Prawit’s influence within the military, signaling his desire to centralize power and minimize potential threats to his authority.
Prawit, despite being officially sidelined to the role of Deputy Prime Minister, retained substantial influence through his deep connections within the military and political circles. His continued control over the Senate, many of whose members were appointed during the junta’s rule, allowed him to remain a significant power broker. This influence became evident in his ability to shape political outcomes indirectly, even as he played a more subdued public role.
Anupong, meanwhile, largely stayed out of the limelight, focusing on his duties within the Interior Ministry. However, his loyalty was increasingly tested as the rivalry between Prayut and Prawit intensified. Anupong’s role became more of a balancing act, as he navigated between supporting Prayut’s centralizing efforts and maintaining his longstanding ties with Prawit.
The growing rivalry between Prayut and Prawit came to a head as Prayut began to distance himself from his former allies, seeking to establish his own political identity and legacy. Prawit’s response was to assert his influence through indirect means, leveraging his network within the Senate and the political corridor to counterbalance Prayut’s power. This rivalry set the stage for the political maneuvering that would follow, with each leader seeking to outmaneuver the other in the complex and often opaque world of Thai politics.
Prawit’s Influence manoeuvre against Srettha
After forming of the Phue Thai led government, Prayut retired from the political scene, Prawit shifted his focus to other avenues of power. Leveraging his deep ties within the Senate and the independent body, Prawit orchestrated what has been referred to as an "automatic process" to undermine political figures aligned with Thaksin, particularly those like Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who was seen as a aligned leader for Thaksin.
The case against Srettha was rooted in accusations of ethical violations related to the appointment of Pichit Chuenban, a minister with a controversial background. The Senate, which was heavily influenced by Prawit during the military junta’s rule, had a significant say in the election of the Prime Minister. Although the term of this Senate cohort has since ended, its influence during Srettha’s rise to power was still palpable. Many of these senators were known to align with conservative forces within the establishment, and their decisions often reflected broader concerns about maintaining the status quo.
The narrow 5-4 decision by the Constitutional Court to remove Srettha from office reflected not only the judiciary's susceptibility to external influence but also the divisions within the conservative establishment. While some factions may have been willing to tolerate Thaksin’s return under controlled conditions, others remained deeply skeptical of his influence and sought to curb it. This split decision can be seen as a microcosm of the broader divisions within Thailand's conservative elite regarding how to handle Thaksin’s enduring presence in Thai politics.
Prawit’s role in this scenario was more about influencing the broader environment rather than directing specific judicial outcomes. By subtly shaping the sentiments within the Senate and the political elite, Prawit ensured that any attempts by Thaksin to regain power through aligned leader like Srettha would face significant institutional resistance. The judicial process, while independent in its operation, was influenced by the prevailing attitudes within the establishment, reflecting a cautious approach to any resurgence of Thaksin’s influence.
Thaksin’s Difficult Calculus
Thaksin’s primary concern was how to manage the emerging political competition while addressing the ongoing suspicions within the conservative establishment. His return to power, whether directly or through aligned leaders, could only be tolerated by the establishment if it did not disturb the delicate balance that the military within the conservative establishment sought to maintain. This required Thaksin to carefully calibrate any political moves to avoid triggering another coup or severe judicial actions against him or his party. The removal of Srettha, a close ally, by the Constitutional Court underscored the risks Thaksin faced. The judicial action against Srettha was a clear indication that the establishment was not prepared to give Thaksin free rein, even if some factions might have preferred his return over the rising influence of the FFP/MFP/PP.
Thaksin’s strategy of using aligned leaders to maintain influence was not new. In the past, he had successfully positioned figures like Samak Sundaravej and Yingluck Shinawatra in leadership roles. However, this approach was fraught with risks, as demonstrated by the judicial challenges that eventually led to the downfall of these leaders. The challenge for Thaksin was finding a new leader who could effectively navigate the current political environment. Although Srettha was a capable leader, he ultimately could not withstand the pressures from the judiciary, highlighting the limitations of this strategy in the face of a determined conservative backlash.
With Srettha’s removal, Thaksin faced a critical decision regarding who should lead the Pheu Thai Party moving forward. The logical choice appeared to be his daughter, Paetongtarn, who embodied both the continuation of the Shinawatra legacy and a fresh face capable of appealing to the next generation of voters. However, this decision was not without risks. Paetongtarn’s relative inexperience could make her susceptible to the same forces that ousted Srettha, and her rise might reignite fears within the establishment of a renewed Shinawatra dominance. Thaksin had to carefully weigh the potential benefits of energizing the party with a new leader against the dangers of provoking further opposition from powerful conservative factions.
Paetongtarn’s Entry into the Political Arena
Paetongtarn’s involvement in politics had been gradual, but her potential candidacy for the premiership represented a bold shift. She embodied the promise of a new generation, combining the Shinawatra name with a youthful perspective that could resonate with voters disillusioned by the old guard. However, her rise was not without its challenges. Paetongtarn's relative inexperience in the rough-and-tumble world of Thai politics raised concerns about her ability to withstand the pressures that had undone her predecessors.
Internally, there was also the issue of party unity. While Thaksin’s influence remained strong, the Pheu Thai Party was not immune to internal factions and power struggles. Paetongtarn’s candidacy had to navigate these dynamics carefully, ensuring that her leadership would not only maintain but strengthen the party’s cohesion. The approval of Thaksin’s ex-wife, Potjaman, reportedly a significant force behind the scenes, was crucial in solidifying Paetongtarn’s path forward. Her mother’s support suggested a united front within the Shinawatra family, which would be vital for Paetongtarn to assert her leadership.
The decision to position Paetongtarn as a potential Prime Minister also reflected Thaksin’s recognition of the changing political landscape. The rapid rise of the FFP/MFP indicated a shifting electorate, with younger voters seeking new, reformist voices. Paetongtarn, as a new-generation leader, was seen as the Pheu Thai Party’s best hope to reclaim its dominance by appealing to this demographic. Her leadership could serve as a counterbalance to the FFP/MFP’s appeal, offering voters a fresh yet familiar alternative that still carried the weight of the Shinawatra legacy.
Yet, the risks were significant. Paetongtarn’s rise could provoke further resistance from the conservative establishment, which remained wary of the Shinawatra family's return to power. Her ability to navigate this opposition, while maintaining the party’s appeal across different voter bases, would be the ultimate test of her political acumen.
In Episode 4 of "Global Insight," we navigate the complex and volatile landscape of Thai politics, where power is not just about holding office but is deeply rooted in a web of relationships, alliances, and historical legacies. This episode delves into the enduring influence of the military, the decline of Prayut Chan-o-Cha's government, and the growing rivalries among Thailand's key political figures. We also explore the continuing impact of Thaksin Shinawatra on the nation's political scene, examining how his legacy shapes current events and influences future dynamics. Through this episode, we provide a deeper understanding of the forces shaping Thailand, offering insights that go beyond the headlines.
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