This week, our focus for the Trend Monitoring Radar will not be on the geopolitical analytic results. However, you can still view that section from both our AWS and GCP PulsarWave systems. Instead of refining the output, we will analyze the comparative study between the two systems. Our goal is to determine the optimal balance between standardization and randomization when incorporating Generative AI into automated processing. It is important to consider this limitation as Generative AI operates outside the traditional computation paradigm. We will begin by examining the general output and then move on to discuss the resource constraints, particularly the cost involved. Additionally, we will provide a draft paper titled "Autonomous AI and the Quest for Digital Life: A Thermodynamic Perspective" on this topic.
Weekly Geopolitical Trend Radar produced by PulsarWave, please access this radar for both AWS and GCP.
1. Result Part
1.1 AWS weekly PESTLE report: PESTLE WEEKLY BRIEF:
- Political: Ongoing geopolitical tensions include Russia's intensified aggression in Eastern Europe. In the wake of Ukraine's request for cluster munitions, we're reminded of the crucial relevance of hard power dynamics and the role of state actors, as evidenced by theories like Mackinder's Heartland Theory and Mearsheimer's Offensive Realism. Similarly, the toppled government in Myanmar and the aftermath present essential lessons on the dynamic forces at play in overall geopolitical power.
- Economic: Significant economic concerns consist of global south indebtedness, a stark illustration of economic power influence. Meanwhile, India faces economic risks, demonstrating the impact of neoliberalism and its emphasis on global institutions and economic power. The explosive growth in Solar Power Startup industry is an example of economic shifts towards renewable resources.
- Sociocultural: An interesting correlation was drawn between the climate crisis and domestic violence, indicating that sociocultural factors always interplay with environmental issues. Additionally, Doctors Saving Lives in Ukraine, amidst the conflict, represents values of valor and wisdom, crucial components of Toffler's powershift concept.
- Technological: The OpenAI's decision to hire a lobbyist illuminates the intersectionality of technological advancements, politics and economic powers, while the discovery of gravitational waves indicates a significant advancement in the domain of astrophysics, projecting a new era of technological progress in studying the Universe. Similarly, the cybersecurity shortage stands as a stark reminder of technology's role in state and non-state security.
- Legal: The FAA is facing increasing challenges, reflecting the evolving legal landscape around aviation and technological development. The Supreme court's decisions on gun control reflect for an essential reexamination of legal frameworks concerning human safety.
- Environmental: The protection of Joshua trees and threats to the Antarctic's volatility are indicative of the escalating concern and the urgent need for effective environmental policies. The increasing realization that climate change effects directly impact sociocultural and economic aspects of human life highlights the environmental component of the PESTLE analysis as a rising concern for all stakeholders.
In conclusion, the metageopolitical framework allows for a comprehensive understanding of diversified events happening across the globe. It helps in identifying the interplay of various powers and the subsequent shifts in their dynamics, allowing decision-makers to protect and promote their interests proactively. The weeks' events demonstrated that these powers continue to shift, evolve, and influence one another in complex and often unpredictable ways, underscoring the need for continuous assessment and informed strategic decision-making.
1.2 GCP weekly PESTLE report
The past week witnessed significant global events spanning political, economic, sociocultural, technological, legal, and environmental sectors. In this briefing, we used the metageopolitical framework to categorize and analyze these events to help C-suite executives understand the strategic implications.
POLITICAL:
Among the major political events, the US’s efforts to cut reliance on Beijing highlights the dynamics of hard power. Furthermore, the coup aftermath in certain regions suggests a shift in state actors' roles and motivations. In the Middle East, the strained status quo due to Saudi's absorption of the PGA legacy also reflects hard power dynamics with economic undertones. The prospective renewal of the nuclear deal built upon Wisdom (noopolitik), demonstrating how information and ideas shape the geopolitical landscape.
ECONOMIC:
Several economic developments emerged, including the concerning increase in the Global South's indebtedness, which emphasized the significant role of economic power in shaping international relations. Furthermore, the US trade deficit and the emerging global debt crisis echo Neoliberal thoughts on the impact of global institutions and economies on international politics.
SOCIETAL:
Socioculturally, the potential end of Roe v Wade reflects the influence of collective shared ideas, aligning with the Constructivism theory in geopolitics.
TECHNOLOGICAL:
The discovery of gravitational waves and Microsoft's purchase of Activision Blizzard underscore the technological advancements impacting international relations and the corporate world.
LEGAL:
In the legal domain, the reaffirmation of the Affirmative Action Ban represents state actors' roles and motivations, consistently associating with the Offensive Realism theory.
ENVIRONMENTAL:
The implications of the climate crisis remained a constant in the environmental sector, reflecting the shared ideas of states and societies and resonating with the Constructivist vein.
The metageopolitical framework's application enables a holistic understanding of these events and their potential long-term impacts on global power dynamics and international relations. This inclusive, multi-dimensional approach allows better predictions and strategic decisions to be made in various domains.
The unfolding of the global events, whether they relate to economic policies or environmental crises, testify to the dynamic interplay between Valor, Wisdom, and Benevolence as envisioned in Toffler's "powershift" concept. Such an integrative understanding will help C-suite executives guide their organizations through the complex geopolitical landscape, enabling them to anticipate changes, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities.
2. Report: Comparative Study of Trend Monitoring Radar Systems
In this report, we present the findings of our comparative study between two Trend Monitoring Radar systems deployed on AWS and GCP platforms. Our objective was to investigate the trade-off between standardization and randomization in the context of Generative AI and its impact on the output of the radar system.
During the study period, which lasted from June 29, 2023, to July 5, 2023, we collected data from both systems in four iterations per day: 1:05 AM, 7:05 AM, 1:05 PM, and 7:05 PM (AWS runs on this schedule, the GCP system runs 10 minutes late accordingly to this schedule.) The primary focus of this analysis was on the structural differences and label discrepancies observed in the selected tweets during each iteration.
The results revealed that achieving optimality between standardization and randomization is a challenging task. While some degree of randomization in labeling was allowed and observed in the outputs, ensuring randomization in the selection of tweets presented a significant challenge. Identical results, or labels, were only observed in two instances: 1:05 AM on July 1 and 1:05 PM also on July 1. In all other iterations, both systems exhibited structural differences, with distinct tweets being selected.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that both systems encountered processing failures during the study period. AWS experienced failures during the 1:05 PM iteration on June 29 and the 7:05 AM iteration on June 30. Similarly, GCP encountered a failure during the 1:05 PM iteration on July 3.
These observations highlight the difficulty in achieving standardization and complete randomization simultaneously within the Trend Monitoring Radar systems. The nature of Generative AI and the incorporation of automation introduce limitations and challenges when it comes to the selection and structuring of data. Balancing the need for standardized outputs with the inherent randomness of the AI system is a complex task that requires further exploration and fine-tuning.
In conclusion, our comparative study shed light on the intricacies of achieving optimality between standardization and randomization in Trend Monitoring Radar systems. The presence of structural differences and the occasional label discrepancies demonstrate the challenges in maintaining consistent outputs while incorporating randomness. Further research and refinement of the systems are necessary to strike the right balance and leverage the full potential of Generative AI in trend monitoring applications.
Part 3: Supplement Article: Autonomous AI and the Quest for Digital Life: A Thermodynamic Perspective
Please download this file at [link].
Note: We apologize for any errors present in the previous revision of this paper and we have revised it accordingly. We are committed to providing accurate information and appreciate your understanding. (July 6, 2023).
We have successfully deployed our Trend Monitoring Radar (TMR) on the Wednesday section. We deployed a Python script to scan weekly news and asked AI to prioritize and categorize it. Additionally, we instructed AI to generate a weekly summary report based on the scanning data in a reporting style for the executive director of the Geopolitical Analysis department. The report is far from perfect, so please do not share the contents publicly. We will strive to make the entire process 100% automated and find ways to improve relevance, consistency, and accuracy in the future. our TMR is inspired by opensource.zalando.com/tech-radar/.
Geopolitics.Asia will provide serious policy analysis on Mondays, trend monitoring on weekdays, and cultural and lifestyle issues on weekends. Please note that our weekday situation monitoring will not include a trend radar or scenario analysis for the time being, as we work to fully automate these processes with AI. You can, however, access to our previous experiments on trend radar and scenario planning generated by the AI, 1) Simple scenario planning at Jan 26, 2023, 2) Double iteration scenario planning technique at February 2, 2023, 3) Triple iteration scenario planning techniqueat February 9, 2023, and 4) Hyperdimensional scenario planning technique at February 17, 2023.
Stay tuned for updates on this exciting development!