Apart from our customary weekly trend monitoring radar report, this week, we are thrilled to spotlight three significant milestones. Firstly, our pioneering project, GRASUP, leveraging the power of Thailand's LANTA, the fastest supercomputer in the region, has initiated an Open Beta Test, and we are extending invitations for collaboration to researchers in the fields of geopolitical and international relations. Secondly, our autonomous Trend Monitoring Radar engine, PulsarWave, has successfully navigated its first week without human intervention, prompting us to open-source its code. Lastly, we are primed to participate in the Pinecone Hackathon to benchmark our software against global standards, gain insights from industry pioneers, and solicit feedback from international industry practitioners.
Image from [source]
Part I: News Update from SIU
In this week's apart of our trend monitoring radar report, we turn our attention to three significant announcements:
To kick off, our much-anticipated project, GRASUP (Large Language Models for Geopolitical Risk Analysis via Supercomputing), has received approval for an Open Beta Test under the auspices of the LANTA programme. For the uninitiated, LANTA refers to the Cray EX Supercomputer, a gem of technology housed in Thailand that is currently ranked 79th worldwide, thereby making it the fastest in the ASEAN region and within the top 20 in Asia. For more information, visit https://thaisc.io.
Harnessing the mighty computational prowess of LANTA, GRASUP is dedicated to creating models for geopolitical risk analysis, aiming to foresee global threats and devise strategies to combat them. This programme is slated to run until September's close, implying a bustling few months lie ahead. To expand our collaborative horizons, we are keen on partnering with researchers in both LLMs and geopolitical/international relations. Our endeavour is to generate academic papers that can contribute significantly to both geopolitical modelling and LLMs, thereby gaining recognition in local and international academic circles.
Secondly, we take great pleasure in announcing that our Trend Monitoring Radar engine has sailed through the first week without any improvisations or human operator interventions. Owing to the workflow automation from start to finish, we are excited to open-source the code for our Trend Monitoring Radar engine, PulsarWave. Please find the details at https://github.com/sikkha/PulsarWave.
Lastly, we are set to participate in the Pinecone Hackathon: Jumpstart Real-World AI Applications (https://pinecone-hackathon.devpost.com/). This industrial-grade hackathon will see us leading a team of six adept developers in the competition. The objective is not only to showcase our software, PulsarWave, but also to benchmark it against global standards, learn about cutting-edge technologies from industry leaders like AWS, OpenAI, Hugging Face, Cohere, Vercel, Netlify, ClerI, and Langchain (i.e., Langchain Plus), enhance our code performance, and obtain feedback from globally-recognised industry practitioners. See our project page at devpost here: https://devpost.com/software/pulsarwave.
As we celebrate these notable achievements, we invite you to stay tuned for more updates. The ongoing development of GRASUP, the exciting new direction for PulsarWave, and our upcoming participation in the Pinecone Hackathon represent just the tip of the iceberg. Our commitment to innovation and collaboration remains steadfast. Keep an eye out for more news and developments as we continue to push boundaries in our industry.
Part II: Weekly Trend Monitoring Radar Report and Metageopolitical Analysis Weekly Scan:
Weekly Geopolitical Trend Radar, please access this radar at: http://www.geopolitics.io
I. Political
The recent Ukraine counteroffensive and its potential NATO membership have exacerbated tensions with Russia, an issue that requires an understanding of both Mackinder's Heartland Theory and Spykman's Rimland Theory. The US's support of democratic Ukraine joining the alliance potentially alters the balance of hard power in Eurasia, challenging Russia's regional hegemony as proposed by Mearsheimer's Offensive Realism. Furthermore, China's diplomatic stance towards the situation carries significant weight. Should China bolster its relationship with Russia, it could lead to a new geopolitical block, influencing the dynamics of global powers.
Ukraine's potential NATO membership is indeed a point of increased tension with Russia. President Joe Biden has recently indicated he is open to easing Ukraine’s path to NATO membership, even without the Membership Action Plan (MAP) which typically requires a candidate nation to make military and democratic reforms. However, this would still need the agreement of all NATO members [1.]
China's stance on Ukraine's potential NATO membership is not clear, and any predictions about its future stance would be speculative. The same applies to the notion of China bolstering its relationship with Russia to form a new geopolitical block.
II. Economic
Rapid advancements in microchip production, with key players such as Taiwan, China, and the US leading the charge, are increasing their economic power and shaping the global supply chain, underlining the importance of technological superiority in the neoliberal global economy. The current inflationary trends and Federal Reserve's policies have ripple effects on global markets, potentially destabilizing them in the long run. Moreover, the European Central Bank's policy plays a pivotal role in determining the EU's economic outlook, emphasizing the role of institutions as per Constructivism.
III. Sociocultural
The surge in social media usage, linked to mental health issues and societal trends, is becoming a significant sociopolitical factor, with the potential to sway public opinion and affect electoral outcomes, providing a vivid example of the interaction between technology and societal constructs as envisioned in Constructivism. Additionally, the influence of India's diaspora is extending beyond mere cultural exchange. Their growing political and economic influence could aid in boosting India's global standing.
IV. Technological
The labeling of Huawei and ZTE as high-risk entities by the US has significant geopolitical implications, reflecting the interplay of technology, hard power, and economic power in the current global scenario. This move might disrupt global supply chains, impede the 5G roll-out, and intensify the tech war between the US and China. Additionally, AI developments globally are not only driving economic growth but also posing challenges to ethical norms and security.
V. Legal
The contentious EARN IT Act raises not only concerns about user privacy but also threatens to reshape the operations of tech companies and encryption standards. It might also provoke backlash from civil rights organizations, emphasizing the growing role of non-state actors in shaping the legal landscape around technology and privacy.
VI. Environmental
The appearance of polyester bees and climate change-induced fires are acute signs of our deteriorating environment. Their geopolitical implications include potential conflicts over resources and a reorientation of state priorities towards sustainability. Governments and industries' initiatives towards sustainable practices and emissions reduction represent a critical shift in policy and operations in response to environmental crises.
In conclusion, understanding these events from a metageopolitical perspective - incorporating insights from various geopolitical theories and considering the dynamic interplay of hard power, economic power, noopolitik, and other factors - enables executives to make strategic decisions. These decisions must take into account the complexities of an ever-changing global landscape, considering the interplay of multiple power domains. This comprehensive view is a cornerstone of metageopolitics, providing a strategic perspective vital for navigating the current geopolitical landscape.
We have successfully deployed our Trend Monitoring Radar (TMR) on the Wednesday section. We deployed a Python script to scan weekly news and asked AI to prioritize and categorize it. Additionally, we instructed AI to generate a weekly summary report based on the scanning data in a reporting style for the executive director of the Geopolitical Analysis department. The report is far from perfect, so please do not share the contents publicly. We will strive to make the entire process 100% automated and find ways to improve relevance, consistency, and accuracy in the future. our TMR is inspired by opensource.zalando.com/tech-radar/.
Geopolitics.Asia will provide serious policy analysis on Mondays, trend monitoring on weekdays, and cultural and lifestyle issues on weekends. Please note that our weekday situation monitoring will not include a trend radar or scenario analysis for the time being, as we work to fully automate these processes with AI. You can, however, access to our previous experiments on trend radar and scenario planning generated by the AI, 1) Simple scenario planning at Jan 26, 2023, 2) Double iteration scenario planning technique at February 2, 2023, 3) Triple iteration scenario planning techniqueat February 9, 2023, and 4) Hyperdimensional scenario planning technique at February 17, 2023.
Stay tuned for updates on this exciting development!